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发表于 2016-9-27 06:46:14
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本帖最后由 e3po 于 2018-3-5 19:03 编辑
问:
我很有钱, 为什么你不觉得我是发烧友?
答:
这是个智商问题, 请做智商测试。如下:
http://www.arealme.com/iq-2015/zh/
问:
那些盲听大赛不是发现了金耳朵么?
答:
把实验数据里面不符合自己预期的剔除, 只采用自己喜欢的数据, 说得通俗一些叫摘樱桃 (Cherry Picking), 说的文雅一点就是掩耳盗铃。这种低水平的学术造假只要小学程度的教育水平都能看穿。
问:
那些被发现的金耳朵真的那么神?
答:
让一只猴子在打字机上随机地按键,当按键次数达到无穷时,几乎必然能够打出任何给定的文字,比如莎士比亚的全套著作。
你觉得猴子突然进化了么。 正如彩票都有人中一样, 中彩票的人也都是肉身俗体。这是概率论的解释。
另外还有一个是实验方法的解释。 历史上有名的聪明汉斯是一匹懂得算术和做出各式各样惊奇技能的马,而事实上聪明汉斯不是真的懂得算术,而是靠训练员和观察者无意识下给予的暗示(例如:表情、姿势)得出正确答案。
同样,被发现的金耳朵和汉斯可能处于同样的情况。 至于被发现的金耳朵有无与主办方串通那其实不重要, 因为目前看到的实验方法是漏洞百出而且没有统计学意义。
问:
照你这么说,那些盲听大赛是在造假么?
答:
没有空白对照没有统计学意义的盲听大赛只能认为是群众娱乐,
虽然不能直斥为造假, 但你可以联想一下耍魔术。
问:
难道那些盲听大赛没有意义?
答:
实际上您可以认为这是我国发烧友重新发现了聪明汉斯。
发现金耳朵类似于我国近代史上的亩产万斤。
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采樱桃(cherry picking)、隐瞒证据(suppressing evidence)、证据不完整谬误(fallacy of incomplete evidence)、或监视下的选择(observational selection)是一种非形式谬误,系指刻意挑选支持论点的资料呈现,而将重要但不支持论点的资料忽略不计。
这个词语是源于采樱桃或其他水果的一般经验。挑水果的人把好的水果挑出来,看到的人可能会以为所有水果都是好的。
(also known as: suppressed evidence, fallacy of incomplete evidence, argument by selective observation, argument by half-truth, card stacking, fallacy of exclusion, ignoring the counter evidence, one-sided assessment, slanting, one-sidedness)
Description: When only select evidence is presented in order to persuade the audience to accept a position, and evidence that would go against the position is withheld. The stronger the withheld evidence, the more fallacious the argument.
Logical Form:
Evidence A and evidence B is available.
Evidence A supports the claim of person 1.
Evidence B supports the counter claim of person 2.
Therefore, person 1 presents only evidence A.
Example #1:
Employer: It says here on your resume that you are a hard worker, you pay attention to detail, and you don’t mind working long hours.
Andy: Yes sir.
Employer: I spoke to your previous employer. He says that you constantly change things that should not be changed, you could care less about other people’s privacy, and you had the lowest score in customer relations.
Andy: Yes, that is all true, as well.
Employer: Great then. Welcome to our social media team!
Explanation: Resumes are a classic example of cherry picking information. A resume can be seen as an argument as to why you are qualified for the job. Most employers are wise enough to know that resumes are one-sided, and look for more evidence in the form of interviews and recommendations to make a decision.
Example #2:
My political candidate gives 10% of his income to the needy, goes to church every Sunday, and volunteers one day a week at a homeless shelter. Therefore, he is honest and morally straight.
Explanation: What information was left out of the example is that this same candidate gives 10% of his income to needy prostitutes in exchange for services, goes to the bar every Sunday after church (and sometimes before), and only works at the homeless shelter to get clients for his drug dealing business.
Exception: If the parts of the truth being suppressed do not affect the truth of the conclusion, or can reasonably be assumed, they could be left out of the argument. For example, political candidates are not committing this fallacy when they leave out the fact that they will need about 8 hours of sleep each day.
Tip: If you suspect people are only telling you a half-truth, don’t be afraid to ask, “Is there anything you are not telling me?”
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